Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 1.294514 1.372189 1.453171 1.544100 1.643597 1.749430 1.870872
2026-01-25 1.192442 1.304195 1.426235 1.570212 1.736480 1.923748 2.152464
2026-02-01 1.095577 1.222499 1.365332 1.539471 1.748113 1.992758 2.305420
2026-02-08 1.014391 1.148933 1.303800 1.497422 1.736170 2.025249 2.408671
2026-02-15 0.962341 1.104286 1.270953 1.484063 1.753781 2.090192 2.552317
2026-02-22 0.925810 1.074949 1.253254 1.486009 1.787858 2.175115 2.725508
2026-03-01 0.882141 1.033952 1.218111 1.462595 1.786096 2.211063 2.832874
2026-03-08 0.835442 0.986659 1.172262 1.422067 1.758125 2.208370 2.883593
2026-03-15 0.806113 0.959622 1.150382 1.410901 1.767661 2.255987 3.008505
2026-03-22 0.793594 0.953104 1.154077 1.433096 1.823009 2.370081 3.240502
2026-03-29 0.772894 0.934976 1.141519 1.432207 1.845380 2.437393 3.405691
2026-04-05 0.760591 0.927115 1.141878 1.448555 1.892494 2.543320 3.640915
2026-04-12 0.741390 0.910141 1.130231 1.448853 1.918195 2.621657 3.844311
2026-04-19 0.731748 0.905526 1.135074 1.472646 1.980026 2.760495 4.166749
2026-04-26 0.704801 0.876511 1.105127 1.444646 1.961493 2.769827 4.260832
2026-05-03 0.676061 0.844107 1.069266 1.406307 1.924712 2.746566 4.292240
2026-05-10 0.657750 0.825372 1.051775 1.394117 1.927710 2.788656 4.449669
2026-05-17 0.645063 0.813924 1.044032 1.395893 1.952523 2.868683 4.688743
2026-05-24 0.625817 0.792743 1.021657 1.374519 1.938754 2.881019 4.794008
2026-05-31 0.602716 0.765550 0.989832 1.337488 1.897581 2.842525 4.790768
2026-06-07 0.588895 0.751042 0.975852 1.327279 1.899924 2.881258 4.953392
2026-06-14 0.584805 0.750132 0.981503 1.347570 1.953926 3.016933 5.342265
2026-06-21 0.574821 0.740496 0.973981 1.346757 1.971950 3.087279 5.595376